The number of homes with two-way or interactive cable TV will rise from 60,000 (less than 2% of the 4,100 cable systems) in 1981 to 10 million by 1990 according to a recently completed study funded by the National Science Foundation. The Institute for the Future, contractors for the $250,000 study of teletext and videotex technologies, identified a number of factors that will influence the growth of two-way cable:
- FCC requirements
The FCC now requires that all coaxial cable systems have the capacity to be converted to two-way operation. - Expiration of franchises
A majority of franchises will expire within the next decade and will have to be renewed or rebid, thus providing an opportunity for local governments to require upgrading.
- Industry growth
Feeder cables will pass two- thirds of all U.S. homes by 1985..
- Competition
At least one major cable company is offering two-way cable in its bids.
- Increased demand for local data communication
Local telephone systems will not be able to accommodate the rapidly growing local data communication needs.
The costs for upgrading the nation's cable systems will be substantial. Much of the existing cable will have to be augmented or replaced. A second cable can be strung alongside the first to provide for two-way capability or the cable can be replaced with a single high capacity line with different frequencies employed for transmission in each direction.
Libraries which envision using two-way cable for remote access to their catalogs or other data bases within the next decade should seek to participate in franchise award or renewal decisions.
