Over 100 data base producers, vendors and users gathered at the fall meeting of the Association of Information and Dissemination Centers (ASIDIC) in Boston in late September to discuss the future of the data base in industry. Three interrelated and complementary trends were the focus of most of the discussion: a change in the pattern of data base distribution services; increasing concern with targeting and meeting the needs of end users; and the impact of technology an pricing data base services.
The keynote speaker, Ted West, of the Cambridge Research Institute discussed the changing dynamics of the industry. At present, the large data base vendors are the focus of power and control. They provide most of the marketing and training support for individual data bases and pricing and royalty structures favor the collection of revenues through the vendors. Efforts by data base producers have concentrated more on fitting their files to the requirements of the vendors' systems than on meeting the special needs of end users of the files. However, the dynamics of the industry are changing. The focus of activity and power is moving from the interface with the data base vendor to that with the end user. This shift is occurring for a number of reasons. Some data base producers are becoming dissatisfied with the services of data base vendors. The following factors were cited by producers as contributing to their growing dissatisfaction with the services currently being provided by data base vendors: delays in updating files; lack of control over priorities; the limited feedback available on the use of the files; and the fact that often when such feedback is given, there are restrictions placed upon the use that the data base producer may make of the information.
In response to these and similar forces, West remarked that a variety of patterns can be expected to emerge. For example, some data base producers will concentrate on marketing their products to end users while leaving the distribution of the data base to the vendors. In turn, the vendors can then concentrate on improving delivery mechanisms by developing better software and implementing technological advances to provide better communications capabilities. Other data base producers will not only redesign their products to more closely accord to the needs of users, but will also develop alternate networks through which to distribute their products. Data base producers who regard their online data bases as only one of the many resources required to meet an information need are now developing integrated services to address the full range of needs -- generally in very specialized markets.
User requirements are expected to drive vendor developments. These developments will include the creation of user friendly interfaces and simpler search strategies, the provision of broader access to the full range of available files, and the development of less expensive, faster access terminals and communications. The marketing strategies of data base producers will also focus on the user: the problem being how to get a user to choose to access a particular data base once having signed-on to a vendors' network.
Detailing the factors influencing congestion at the end user interface, West cited the proliferation of data bases and the fact that most of the description of available data bases is provided by the vendors as being the major reasons for confusion among users-confusion which inhibits the use of individual data bases.
The themes established by West were reiterated by other speakers throughout the meeting. Technological change is also impacting the shape of the industry, contributing to further movement away from the historic pattern of a small number of large data base vendors. The popularity of microcomputers is facilitating direct access to data bases by end-users. This rapidly increasing end user base needs training, but training which is decentralized, accessible and less expensive than the traditional face to face "How to use data base X" seminars common in the past. Not that the need for intermediaries is diminishing, the proliferation of data bases-bibliographic, numeric and full text-and the variety of sources on which they are mounted has given rise to a new industry sector of intermediaries and consultants.
Looking to the longer term future, the consensus was that there will be continued growth with more data base producers mounting their own files and providing services directly rather than through data base vendors; a continuing role for information retailers; and increasing diversity as more specialized data bases and services targeted at specific end user markets develop. Many of these specialist markets will be served by integrated services.
Technology is also impacting the data base producers and vendors with significant implications for pricing policies. For instance, a year and a half ago 90 percent of BRS users accessed the system on 300 baud lines while the remaining 10 percent used 1200 baud lines.
The current mix is about 50 percent. Despite the fact that the number of accesses per password is increasing, the effect of faster access modes has been to totally skew the use of the connect hour as either a usage or revenue measure. The impact is felt equally by data base vendors and data base producers as most use some form of connect time in their charging algorithms. Not only is technology contributing to the reduced connect times, but the skill of the searcher also has an effect as does the increasing use of microcomputers to formulate and refine search strategies off-line.
Continuance of the current usage measures for pricing would not only work to the disadvantage of producers and vendors but would eventually affect users since vendors would have little inclination to develop or implement more efficient or faster access techniques and software. [Indeed, some vendors and producers could set up blocks to pace the speed at which the system can be used- limiting the number of simultaneous users or affecting access speed.]
High speed modems, the proliferation of inexpensive terminals and the increasing availability of microcomputers and low priced storage has given rise to another issue assuming importance in thinking and revenues in the data base industry: downloading, the practice whereby a user signs on to a data base, conducts a search and then transfers the results of the search into a microcomputer for later manipulation or retention. Despite the fact that some commentators see downloading as a threat to data base usage--users not needing to access the central data base because they have already downloaded all the relevant data into their personal files--participants at ASIDIC did not exhibit undue concern over this aspect of the practice. Most were of the opinion that their data bases were sufficiently dynamic and changing to require that users would have to continue using them to keep up to date. Discussion centered rather on methods for facilitating the monitoring of downloading and the development of schema for charging for data transferred in this way.
