A recently completed multi-client market study by The Eastern Management Group of Morris Plains, New Jersey, predicts that 16-bit based micros will displace 8-bit machines by the mid- 1980s. While the short-term advantages of 16-bit machines are currently limited because of the relatively small number of software packages now available, new business-oriented software is being written for the more powerful machines. The 8-bit system just cannot accommodate the sophisticated programs users require, said many of the experts interviewed by EMG, an opinion echoed by Seymour Merrin in a discussion of micros at Online '82. The EMG report concludes that the best interim solution is to purchase a machine with a dual processor, one 8-bit and the other 16-bit. Examples of such systems are the North Star Advantage 8/16, the Vector Graphics Vector 4, and TRS 16.
The report forecasts another period of uncertainty when 32-bit micros become generally available in the late 1980s. Digital Equipment Corporation is already developing a 32-bit micro by downsizing its powerful VAX minicomputer. The 32-bit micros will offer compatibility with many minis and mainframes so that software will not have to be changed even if an organization grows very rapidly. The report predicts that Apple, Tandy, and Commodore will be displaced as the market leaders in microcomputers.
The report is not available for general distribution.
