As the popular press continues to highlight new and exciting applications of various optical" media, many librarians have expressed concern as to the stability and viability of the subset of these technologies of most immediate concern for both collection development and emerging library data storage applications-videodisc.
Currently, only two types of videodisc are receiving commercial support in the U.S.-the grooved capacitance CED disc adopted by RCA and the laser or reflective optical disc sold by Pioneer and Sony. Although RCA continues to abide by its promise to continue to produce new entertainment programming for its CED disc players for several more years, the continued viability of this medium is very questionable since RCA's announced withdrawal from the player market earlier this year (See LSN May 1984). On the other hand, despite its comparatively low penetration of the consumer market, the future of the reflective optical videodisc looks quite good. In a report published in the August 1984 issue of Videodisc Monitor, a number of sources that track current and projected sales of videodisc players in the U.S. were examined. According to one source, the current estimated population of consumer videodisc players in the U.S. is 630,000- 500,000 CED players and 130,000 reflective optical videodisc players.
The reason for optimism for the future of the reflective videodisc lies in its ability to capture the industrial market currently estimated at 76,000 units, divided among arcade games (30,000), educational use (6,000), and general use (40,000). The reflective optical videodisc monopolizes this market on account of its interactive capabilities and its utilization of the full range of videodisc capabilities including freeze-frame and slow motion. Integration of these features into programs for educational and industrial use allows for some very sophisticated applications.
Among the U.S. organizations that have made large purchases of players for such applications are: American Motors (1,200), AT&T/AIS (350), Digital Equipment Corp. (4,000), Disney Epcot Center (272), Ford-U.S. and Canada (4,200), General Motors (10,500), IBM-worldwide (4,400), Miles Pharmaceuticals (250), and the U.S. Army (3,100).
The 1984 market size for interactive videodisc is estimated to be $66 million, with 54 percent of the applications relating to training, and 23 percent each in advertising/sales/promotion,' public relations and coin-operated applications such as video arcade games. It is expected that by 1993, the market will be over $7 billion.
Another study projects that, in l989 the point-of-purchase and information kiosk market will surpass the consumer --market and become the largest user of videodisc. That report also predicts that the total annual U.S. production of discs will grow from the current rate of 3 million to 24 million by 1990, at which time, roughly 15 million will be for consumers and 9 million for industrial use.
If current plans adhere to schedule, libraries will soon be added to the "industrial market" applications. Library Systems and Services Inc. (LSSI) intends to begin deliveries of its videodisc-based version of the MiniMARC cataloging support system this month. This, and similar systems being investigated by companies such as Carrollton Press, Wilson, CLSI and Geac, use the reflective optical disc as a low cost, high density machine-readable data base publishing medium.
The digital data to be mastered on the disc is recorded on videotape. Proprietary processes, first brought to the market by LaserData of Cambridge, MA, are applied in recording the data on videotape, and processing it to detect errors. Production of the disks from the tape follows regular videodisc production procedures and uses commercial mastering and replication facilities such as those of Sony and 3M. The disks are played on regular laser optical videodisc players with specially developed computer interfaces which enable the disc player to be accessed like any regular computer storage peripheral. On playback, a controller reconverts the analog signal to digital form, and sends the digital data to the computer.
A number of other companies have developed proprietary processes similar to those used by LaserData to encode digital information on analog videodiscs, Firms active in the field include Online Computer Systems, Inc. of Germantown, MD, Reference Technology Inc. of Boulder, CO, and Tomax Inc. of Montreal. These methods which store from 25 to 100 megabytes of digital data per minute of video run time, all require the performance characteristics of reflective optical videodisc Some companies which have investigated the use of videodisc for publishing digital data appear to be holding back. There are at least two reasons for this reticence: 1) they want to be able to assess the efforts of pioneers such as LSSI, or 2) they are concerned lest this use of videodisc be eclipsed by the use of compact audio disks for machine-readable data publishing. Although computing journals have long been predicting the imminent appearance of microcomputer software and data banks in this format (referred to as CD ROM which stands for Compact Disk Read Only Memory) no operational applications have yet been announced. At present, market penetration of the compact audio disk players has not been sufficient to reduce the price of their components to make them attractive as computer storage peripherals, and there are no U.S. production facilities devoted to this media. If experience with the storage of digital data on videodisc is any guide (and it need not be as the compact disc can record such data in digital form rather than requiring its conversion to an analog television-compatible image) it could be two or more years before CD-ROMs are widely available.
Irrespective of the outcome of any battle between the reflective optical videodisc and CD ROM as digital data publishing media, the high degree of activity in other interactive applications of the videodisc technology combined with the consumer market for entertainment discs, should ensure the continuing viability of this videodisc medium.
It is not improbable that a related type of videodisc-the transmissive optical disc-will gain some ground in the U.S. market in the future. Although promised for widespread release in the U.S. for some time, the potential impact of this third videodisc format is yet to be assessed. This format, which is promoted by Thomson-CSF, is currently being supported by the French Government. However, given the size of the established base of reflective optical videodisc technology in the U.S., it does not appear likely that there would be a wholesale defection to the Thomson disc if it does become available here.
