The editors recently have read and heard a number of predictions about the emergence of serials publishing on optical media. The scenario is that hardcopy of current publications and microform of backfiles will be replaced by the new technology. While the editors agree that electronic technology will catch up with serials publishing, or vice versa, the consensus is that the excitement is unwarranted since it will be several years before serials publishing on optical media becomes common. At least four factors must be in place before it will be practical to displace hardcopy and microform as the primary and secondary publishing media. The following factors, which are to a great extent interdependent, include: maturity of the electronic technology, economics, market acceptance, a commitment on the part of publishers.
Technology takes time to mature and while this process is going on it is difficult to make a choice. In the case of electronic media, the current choices include digital videodisc, CD-ROM, and optical digital disk, but others could be introduced at any time. Potential electronic publishers appear to have a sense of the characteristics of each technology but not necessarily of their strengths and weaknesses for particular applications.
Because they can be maintained online by their publishers, online bibliographic data bases have the capacity for being kept highly current. However, few of them exist in full text. The full text of serial publications has been offered on line in experimental products only. On line access has been considered to be a rather expensive solution when users require the full text of publications. Rising telecommunications costs are expected to increase concern further over this application.
As recently as two years ago, digitally encoded videodiscs were thought to be the answer for electronic delivery of data bases, including full text files of serials. This is the technology used in MiniMARC, a standalone cataloging support system. Despite the fact that, after making a master disc containing up to 4 billion characters of information, it is possible to produce copies for as little as $1.50 per disc, the technology has not caught on because the disc drives and related hardware for accessing information on the discs has remained expensive. Unlike the CD-ROM, which was adapted from a successful mass market consumer medium, the digitally encoded videodisc is based on an analog videodisc medium which is now dead in the commercial marketplace and the training applications of the analog videodisc are not extensive enough to create a significant hardware market. Nevertheless, the technology continues to have the advantage of being able to attach disc drives to almost any type of computer.
Compact disc technology, like the videodisc, involves creating a master and / replicating copies; however, due to its smaller dimensions the maximum data storage capacity, 600 million characters, is only 15 percent of that of a videodisc. As increasing numbers of consumer models of compact audio disc drives become available in discount stores for $200 to $250, we can expect that the price of models supporting the related CD-ROM discs which accommodate machine-readable data will fall to well below $1,000 each. (SilverPlatter Information Services of Wellesly Hills, Massachusetts, a publisher of data bases on CD-ROM already sells such a player for $660.) This is likelybecause it is not necessary to substantially modify a CD audio player in order to make it into a drive for CD-ROM applications.
The recent wave of enthusiasm about CD-ROM warrants a brief review of its major drawbacks. CD-ROM technology is oriented to a single user. A data base on CD-ROM cannot be utilized with a minicomputer or mainframe computer so that a number of users can concurrently access p that same data base. Instead, the CD-ROM drive is attached as a peripheral to a single personal computer. If a ni.mter of people need concurrent access, there must be multiple data subscriptions and multiple systems consisting of drive, interface, search software, display screen, keyboard, and printer (if printing capabilities are needed).
Another constraint is that CD-ROM disc production facilities remain fairly limited. There currently is only one operational facility in the U.S., although five more are in various stages of construction. The focus of most of these facilities, however, is production of compact discs for the audio marketplace. Those who are seeking to press CD-ROM find that the preprocessing work is undertaken in the United States, but the actual pressing almost always is performed in Japan. The turnaround time is often four, six, or even eight weeks. The Grolier Electronic Encyclopedia and the BiblioFile cataloging support system currently use, this CD-ROM technology. There also are more than 50 pilot projects involving bibliographic data bases as varied as Medline, Compendex, and the PAIS Bulletin. The Electronic Encyclopedia, despite being on the market for some time, is not a commercial success. BiblioFile has been issued in several editions and has had sales of more than one hundred copies. Based on current sales, none of the rest can yet be considered viable products. Without more evidence of commercial success serials publishers are likely to remain on the sidelines.
The latest technology to enter the arena is the optical digital disk, a true computer peripheral, hence the spelling of "disk" with a "k." Rather than mastering a disk, the disk is written in much the same manner as a floppy or magnetic disk. It differs from other computer media in that the storage capacity is measured in the billions of characters (comparable to the digital videodisc), and that the data is permanently encoded. Several concurrent users can access the same disk. An organization which does small-scale publishing of a few dozen copies may find this to be a more suitable medium than digital videodisc or CD-ROM. The technology is so new, however, that it is difficult to obtain equipment and media for evaluation.
It is understandable that there is uncertainty about which technology represents the best solution for an electronic publisher. Of them all, it would appear, at the present time, that CD-ROM technology has the largest number of enthusiasts, though its position may be challenged within the next two years by the emerging optical digital disc technology.
A number of the publishers are of the opinion that the market for serials on CD-ROM, or any other kind of electronic technology, is an after-market. That is, they envision the electronic product as augmenting rather than replacing the print product. The big question for them is the size of the market. There is still fear that while the technology is attractive, its economics may not be favorable. It appears that many publishers are going to do just enough to stay immediately behind the market leaders rather than be in the forefront where the risks are greatest.
The economics from the user's or library's point of view is clearer. For the individual or the library to install CD-ROM, for example, requires an investment of up to $1,000 for a disk drive. The cost of an interface between that CD-ROM drive and a personal computer is another $1,000 to $1,900. The search software typically costs between $1,000 and $2,500. The personal computer may cost as much as $3,500. A typical single-user "workstation," therefore, may represent a capital investment of nearly $8,000. Obviously as prices of the various components fall, this initial investment may drop considerably.
A very significant concern that may not be obvious to casual data base shoppers is the fact that the CD-ROMs from SilverPlatter, Digital Equipment Corporation, and The Library Corporation are not able to function on the same drive, with the same interface, or the same search software. As a result, a user must make a large investment to support the product of each individual vendor without the option of being able to switch from one data base publisher to another.
Although these illustrations are not examples of specific serials products, they are bibliographic data bases which represent the earliest efforts regarding CD-ROM electronic publishing. Nevertheless, they illustrate the existing problems faced by serials applications in terms of the size of total investment and the limited utility of that investment.
Much of the problem with regard to market acceptance is related to the fact that no standards are yet in place. Standards do not exist for online data bases, digitally encoded videodiscs, and optical digital disks. There are standards for physically encoding information on CD-ROM, but there are none for the interface between CD-ROM and the personal micro, or for the search software. Some of these standards are in development, but NISO (National Information Standards Organization) standards take two or three years to develop, primarily because of the consensus-building characteristic of this activity.
Some participants in the process contend that because of the technologies' relative immaturity, it is not yet a good idea to establish standards. For example, CD-ROM technology is slow in terms of data retrieval time, and some people fear that if we move too soon to standardize that slow speed, the result may retard technological improvements.
Another constraint is the small installed base of equipment. There have been numerous estimates made, the most generous of which has concluded that there are approximately 400 installed CD-ROM players (including demonstration models) , most of which are in libraries. As many as 150 of these have been installed by a single supplier, The Library Corporation, the producer of BiblioFile. The base of installed systems must increase enormously before libraries will become comfortable in purchasing the equipment and publishers will feel that this market has sufficient profit potential.
There are several aspects to publisher acceptance of the new technologies. The first is a marketing concern: will the new product contribute to the bottom line? This issue is broader than mere product performance. If a publisher has a successful product (print, online, or both) and subsequently releases a new optical-based product, will the market for the existing product(s) be cannibalized by the new medium? Furthermore, if the original product(s) is displaced, will the new market be broad enough to generate equal or higher profits than were realized before?
Another issue relating to acceptance is the publishers' attitude toward new technologies. Attendance at meetings of publishers (including those of scholarly journals) in the past year has indicated that their outlook results from their having entered the publishing business through a love of the printed word. There is personal resistance on the part of many publishers, especially smaller ones, to the idea of electronic publishing. To the extent that electronic publishing will be undertaken, for many it will be a function of survival rather than a first choice of publishing format.
In conclusion, the future is unclear. What is clear, though, is that over the next several years, and possibly well into the next decade, any displacement of hard-copy and microform serials by the emerging media will be through gradual evolution.
