Library Technology Guides

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Volume 9 Number 07 (July 1989)

What is an expert system?

Expert systems are computerized tools designed to enhance the quality and availability of knowledge required by decision makers in a wide range of industries. They augment conventional programs such as data bases, word processors, and spreadsheet analysis. Expert systems differ from conventional applications software in the following ways:

• The expert system shell, or interpreter.
• The existence of a "knowledge base," or system of related concepts that enable the computer to approximate human judgment.
• The sophistication of the user interface.

While any conventional programming language can be used to build a knowledge base, the expert system shell simplifies the process of creating a knowledge base. It is the shell that actually processes the information entered by a user; relates it to the concepts contained in the knowledge base; and provides an assessment or solution for a particular problem. Thus, an expert system shell provides a layer between the user interface and computer operating system to manage the input and output of data. It also manipulates the information provided by the user in conjunction with the knowledge base to arrive at a particular conclusion. The structure of the shell is very similar to that of an interpreter or a front-end to a data base program. The shell also manages the user interface, performing functions that range from the validation of numeric values entered on the screen to management of the mouse and the representation of graphical objects.

The shell is often sold as an end-product, allowing the purchaser to encode a knowledge base from scratch the same way a user would purchase a data base management system. On the other hand, knowledge bases can be sold as products--where a shell or interpreter may be an incidental part of the package--in the same way a user might buy data.

The main purpose of the knowledge base is to provide the guts of the expert system--the connections between ideas, concepts, and statistical probabilities that allow the reasoning part of the system to perform an accurate evaluation of a potential problem. The knowledge base is the library of "rules" the expert system uses when offering a solution to a problem. Knowledge bases are traditionally described as large systems of "if then" statements, but this description is misleading because knowledge bases may not contain definitive rules at all, but may contain many only associative relationships among different concepts, statistical information about the probability of certain solutions, or simply large data bases of fact that can be compared to another based on simple conventions intrinsic to the expert system.

For the last several years, interface designs for expert systems have hinged on graphical capabilities and unconventional methods of entering data into the system. For example, many expert systems used a mouse for data entry well before the Mac became popular. Graphical interfaces can supply information in any number of forms: simple text "dressed up" in windows, pop-up menus, or actual graphical objects. Recently, many of those formats have been integrated into conventional applications, but they are of particular use in expert systems. An expert system may express an idea, solution, or explanation using more complex conventions than rows of numbers, pie charts, or brief messages.

The computer's operating system plays an important role in the implementation of an expert system. The operating system provides the basic capabilities of the machine to the expert system, including file management, some user interface support, memory management, and interfaces to other products that might be wanted to share information that is contained in the expert system. The operating system's resources and utilities may intrinsically provide needed capabilities (for example, graphic or mouse support and data base management) that, therefore, ease the need for additional programming. In some cases, the operating system may even provide conventions for interfacing the expert system to other programs. The disadvantage of using the operating system's facilities is the limited control the developer has over the facilities and likely performance degradation. For example, in the PC environment, OS/2 and Presentation Manager provide much better interface support than DOS.

The purpose of the expert system is to enhance judgment on the part of the user, not to replace human judgment altogether. Expert systems can provide a relatively inexperienced user with a lucj4 assessment of a problem where an expert unavailable. The technology clearly is one which warrants tracking by librarians.

Libraries wishing to undertake expert systems development, in-house, on a PC, should consult the product evaluations of expert system shells published in the June 19, 1989, issue of Infoworld (pp. 59-75).

Erasable disk systems

Just as WORM optical disk products have begun to challenge older tape and disk devices, they now must face challenges from erasable optical disk systems. several companies have announced erasable disk products this year, including Maxtor in San Jose, California, and more are expected to follow soon.

Unlike WORMs, erasable products have write operations in which a laser heats the surface of the medium. A magnetic field is then applied to control the polarity of the heated material. To read the data, the laser senses the change in the polarity of the material. To erase data, the laser reheats the surface of the medium, and the magnetic field resets the polarity of the medium.

Some industry insiders have said they believe that erasables will have a great impact on the market, but others--particularly vendors of non-erasable disks-- believe that the two products will be complementary. There is consensus that only a few erasable 5 1/4" disk products will be shipped this year, possibly as few as 2,500 units. Sales of erasables are expected to expand to 20,000 in the next year and to 60,000 by 1990. Robert Katzive, vice president at Disk/Trend, a Los Altos, California, research firm, predicted that by 1991 erasables will garner 80 percent of an estimated $1.1 billion worldwide market for optical technology. On the other hand, Kenneth Cross, vice president of systems at Perceptics, a maker of WORM subsystems, claims that erasable products will garner only 10 to 20 percent of the market. In the opinion of the editors, what is most likely going to determine which medium will be more popUlar will be cost. In this regard, it appears that WORM products may have the edge but only time will tell.

Maxtor's Tahiti I, a 5 1/4" optical disk drive provides 1GB of formatted storage capacity. Priced at $5,995, the Tahiti I is targeted for the workstation and minicomputer market. Maxtor's other erasable product, the 3 1/2" Fiji I, is aimed at the personal computer market. That product has 160MB of formatted storage capacity and is priced at $1,995. The Tahiti drive has an access speed of 30 msec; the Fiji drive is rated at only 100 msec. Upcoming drives incorporating lighter heads and actuators are expected to approach access times of 20 msec. While these access speeds are slower than those for magnetic media, they are fast enough to be attractive for low cost mass storage applications. By way of comparison, Micro Design International's 940 MB WORM drive costs $4,095, including a SCSI interface for DOS or Xenix. Its access time is 90 msec.

CLSI offers CL-PERLINE for general distribution

CLSI, Inc., announced that it has successfully completed extensive beta testing of CL-Perline, the company's serials management application, at three installations, and the product is available for general release to libraries.

Testing of CL-Perline began one year ago at The Medical Sciences Library of the University of Arkansas. Other sites testing CL-Perline were the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas and the library of Memphis State University.

CLSI plans to migrate CL-Perline to UNIX for libraries that wish to integrate the serials control capability with the CLSI LIBS 100 system.

[Contact: CLSI, Inc., 320 Nevada Street, Newtonville, MA 02160; (617) 965-6310.]

Promark benchmarking update

Last month, LSN reported that Dynix had developed a new product, Promark, to facilitate the benchmarking of its products. In the past few weeks Promark has been spun off as a separate company which will offer benchmarking services to a wide variety of customers. Among the first was a computer company seeking to determine the impact of a new operating system on a variety of applications. The service also will be available to libraries wishing to benchmark one or more library systems.

[Contact: Promark, Ultimate Corporation Building, 6 Becker Farm Road, Fourth Floor, Roseland, NJ 07068; (201) 535-1200 or fax 201-535-6377.]

VTLS-89 introduced

VTLS, Inc., is providing its users with a new version of the VTLS software, called VTLS-89. The most significant feature is its change to an open architecture library system: language, dialogue, commands, punctuation, character sets, terminal support, data base access, user capabilities and system security are all external to the software and can be defined and changed at the user's discretion. Of particular significance is a multilingual capability so versatile that a user can change languages between commands or look at the sane screen in multiple languages. This feature also allows librarians to create help screens for different categories of patrons. Not only can the system be configured to speak many languages, but it can display many versions of the same language. Thus, within VTLS-89 different levels of English can be created like "English for patrons," "English for librarians," and "English for children."

The VTLS-89 system is capable of supporting any character set for data storage and retrieval. VTLS-89 software can support any character set and dynamically transliterate (or map) this character set to the character set of the terminal used for display. An optional enhancement supports any character set that can be defined on a graphics terminal.

VTLS-89 allows libraries to substitute their own command structure if they wish. This capability prepares the VTLS-89 software to conform to common command language if a standard is finally adopted.

VTLS-also includes enhancements to the circulation subsystem. Users may define more than 1,000 patron types and more than 900 item classes. Since circulation policies are controlled by the combination of patron types and item classes, there are 97,200 possibilities. Also, item classes can be made location specific, thereby allowing for circulation policies to be controlled by a patron/item/location matrix.

A new security system has been added to the software. Libraries can now decide which functions are available to which users by making appropriate entries in a security matrix The security matrix includes 96 functions and 10 user classes. For each user class, any function may be enabled, disabled or password protected.

VTLS, Inc., also has announced its intention to market a library automation product which runs on IBM hardware. The new product offering, named MARCUS, looks and acts much like VTLS-89. It is designed to run under IBM's VM/SP operating system which allows the user to choose the accounts that will have access to MARCUS. It is a platform that accommodates many applications simultaneously and will make it possible to have a common source to support other automation needs in addition to a library system. Such a system could additionally support electronic mail, word processing and many other options.

MARCUS uses a relational data base management system--SQL--which provides greater flexibility to the library and makes ad hoc reporting much easier. Unlike most other implementations on IBM, MARCUS uses the ASCII subsystem for display management. This makes it much easier to support library networks and other interconnections.

[Contact: Phyllis Sheldon, VTLS, Inc., 1800 Kraft Drive, Blacksburg, VA 24060; (703) 231-3605.]

Sydney bankrupt

Sydney Development Corporation of Canada--a second tier company in the library automation market, but a major player in the X-400 electronic mail field--has been forced into bankruptcy as the result of losing more than $20 million in the past two years. Under Canadian bankruptcy law, Sydney named Thorne, Ernst and Whitney to take control of the company and try to sell off its assets. There appears to be no one prepared to buy the company outright.

OCLC begins EPIC field tests

On May 15, six libraries began participating in a field test of the EPIC service, an online reference system that will provide subject access to the OCLC Online Union Catalog and other data bases. Designed as a reference tool to be used in all types of libraries by librarians and patrons, the EPIC service will feature a variety of data bases and offer a choice of interfaces to accommodate expert, casual and novice users.

The field test sites are Arthur D. Little, Inc., of Cambridge, Massachusetts; Bailey-Howe Memorial Library, University of Vermont and State Agricultural College in Burlington, Vermont; City of Pasadena, California, Department of Information Service Library; INCOLSA in Indianapolis, Indiana; Northwestern University Library in Evanston, Illinois; and the School of Information and Library Science, University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The field test is scheduled to last 12 weeks. During and after the field test, the service will be refined based on the experiences and comments of the participants. The OCLC EPIC service is expected to be available in January 1990.

The field test began with a nine-million-record segment of the OCLC Online Union Catalog. As the field test progresses, additional records will be added. The entire 19-million-record OCLC data base will be the first data base available to EPIC users for in-depth searching by keywords and phrases. It is a multidisciplinary data base with more bibliographic records in a wider range of subjects and formats than any other information source.

EPIC service features will include keyword and phrase searches; multiple record formats; Boolean operators; command stacking; nested searching; adjacency operators; right and left truncation; range searching; saved searches; online/offline printing; online help, and estimated time and cost of logoff.

A command interface using the proposed NISO Common Command Language for Interactive Information Retrieval (Z39.58-198x) will be offered; as will a menu driven interface for the novice or casual searcher. There also will be an interface to Search CD-450. The EPIC service will be accessible via dial-access terminals and via any terminal on the OCLC dedicated-line network, including Model lxx terminals.

[Contact: OCLC or participating Network offices.]

Rainbow lives

Although Digital Equipment Corporation is liquidating its remaining Rainbow personal computers, the 300,000 to 400,000 installed Rainbows are not dead. Suitable Solutions, Inc., is reviving it by offering an accelerator board that upgrades the Rainbow to an IBM AT-class computer. Called Turbow-286, it includes an 80286 CPU chip that runs at 12 Mhz; 64 KBytes of 16 bit, zero-wait-state static RAM; and support for an 80287 coprocessor. It is installed between the memory and mother board on the Rainbow 100B or 100+ models, and is claimed to increase the speed of the system by two to five times. The product is compatible with all existing add-on boards, such as memory and hard disks, as well as operating systems like MS-DOS and CP/M. Turbow-286 is available now for $595.

The company is also developing drivers to enable Rainbow users to run Microsoft Windows. In addition, Suitable has an exclusive arrangement with Digital to work on an enhancement product that will permit Rainbow users to run MS-DOS 3.1.

[Contact: Suitable Solutions, Inc., 1700 Wyatt Drive, Suite 12, Santa Clara, CA 95054; (408) 727-9090.]

GEAC and CDSL sign

Geac Canada Limited and Co-operators Data Services limited (CDSL) of Regina have announced the signing of a letter of intent for CDSL to acquire Geac's Canadian financial software, and become Geac's distributor for hardware and other services to the Canadian financial market. As part of the agreement, CDSL will assume Geac service bureau operations, client contracts, related assets and associated staff. CDSL is Canada's fourth largest computer services bureau. It supplies data processing, network management, consulting services, office products and facilities management to financial and health care organizations.

Geac is Canada's largest independent computer software and hardware vendor, serving library, credit union and financial services industries worldwide with revenue of over C$70,000,000; 2,500 customers; and more than 700 employees in 14 countries. Geac combines applications software, systems software, and hardware development on its proprietary Geac 8000 and 9000 computers, as well as a broad range of industry-standard hardware platforms. Geac, a major vendor in the library automation market, will continue to enhance and develop both ADVANCE--its multi-platform Pick-based system, and GLIS--Geac's traditional, proprietary hardware/software product line.

Geac claims the agreement, expected to be signed within weeks, will permit it to focus more of its efforts on the library market.

Contact: Geac Computers Ltd., 11 Allstate Parkway, Markham, Ontario, L3R 9T8, Canada; (416) 475-0525.]

Pick and Unix

The Ultimate Corporation, a leading vendor of Pick-based computer systems, is making the move to UNIX. Ultimate has begun offering two UNIX platforms equipped with ULT/ix, its new Pick-to-UNIX software bridge. The ULT/ix bridge allows any Pick application to run under UNIX. Ultimate is selling the ULT/ix bridge with the new Ultimate 1700 Series of System V.3 computers--based on 68020-based systems from Bull HN--and with several versions of the IBM RT. The Ultimate 1700 Series, with prices starting at $37,000, is available in three models equipped with 16.7-MHz or 25-MHz processors, up to 32 Mbytes of internal memory and a maximum of 2 gigabytes of disk capacity. The Series 1700 can handle up to 64 users. Ultimate is also offering ULT/ix with IBM RT Models 115, 125, 130 and 135. Internal memory ranges from 4 Mbytes to 16 Mbytes; user ports range between 8 and 64. Prices start at $28,500 for the Model 115, and go up to $59,500 for the 135.

Dynix, one of two library automation vendors using Pick, already has announced an RT-based product. Company representatives say that the main reason is to take advantage of Pick as a data base management system while providing a Dynix option for those with UNIX-based environments.

The marriage of the two popular operating systems makes good sense because the two operating systems were designed for different environments. Pick is most noted for its strength as a data base and file management system, its large vertical applications base, and ease of use. UNIX, on the other hand, is noted for its rich programming environment, its strengths in data communications, horizontal office applications, and third-party support.

Ultimate plans to continue advancing its version of Pick while also promoting UNIX. The firm claims to have 7,000 Pick installations worldwide.

Ultimate is not the only vendor to bring Pick and UNIX together. At the Internal Spectrum conference in Anaheim, California, in March, several vendors offered products that allowed Pick to run concurrently with UNIX. Edge Computer demonstrated several communications and office automation capabilities for its Symetric operating system, which runs Pick and UNIX together. Other vendors showing Pick/UNIX implementations were Sequoia Systems, Icon International (a hardware platform used by Geac for its Pick-based Advance product), Prime Computers, VMark, and NEC. Applied Digital Data Systems, a subsidiary of NCR Corporation, also plans to introduce a Pick/UNIX product.

Upgrading to OS/2

We have been asked how a library might migrate from the MS-DOS operating system to OS/2 if the latter product begins to displace the former. According to Microsoft Corporation, OS/2 can be run on any 286-based system, but for optimum performance a 386-based system is recommended. Using a 386-based system with an EGA board and multi-scanning monitor, a 40-megabyte hard drive, and 1 megabyte of RAM as the base configuration, upgrading to OS/2 with the Presentation Manager would require 4 Megabytes of RAM at $1,500; a Mouse at $90; a VGA Board and Analog Monitor at $750; and OS/2 with Presentation Manager at $250; for a total of $2,790.

Data base services industry update

There are now about 4,500 online data bases, compared with 301 in 1975, according to Martha Williams of the University of Illinois in a presentation to the National Online Meeting in May. During the last ten years, the number of producers has grown from 316 to 7,133, and the number of computer-readable data base records has risen from 148 million to 225 million. In 1987, revenues of the online industry in the information library market totaled $386 million according to Williams, compared with $40 million in 1978, nearly a tenfold increase. Over the same period, connect hours rose from 780,000 per year to 3.0 million, and the number of searches increased from 2.7 million per year to 26.5 million.

The average cost per search has fluctuated over the last ten years because of baud rate changes, increases in online charges, and changes in pricing formula. The average cost per search in 1987 was $14.60, in constant dollars, a fraction of what it was ten years ago. According to an Information Market Indicators report on 14 vendors in the library market during the last quarter of 1987, top vendors in terms of usage were Mead Data Central and Dialog, which together accounted for 80 percent of usage. West, National Library of Medicine (NLM), BRS, STN, and ORBIT accounted for an additional 20 percent. The remaining major players--including Dow Jones, Questel, Pergamon, VU/TEXT, WILSONLINE, Legi-Slate, and The Source--shared the remaining 10 percent. The revenue picture is similar. Mead and Dialog received 80 percent of the revenue, the next five vendors received 18 percent, and the rest just 2 percent.

Of the 524 active data bases in the library market during the last quarter of 1987, 15 generated over $1 million in revenue; 71 generated over $100,000; 149 generated over $25,000; and 375 generated less than $25,000 during the quarter, or less than $100,000 for a full year. Vendor revenues are split among vendors, producers, and telecommunications carriers.

Community access at Maggie's Place

The Pikes Peak Library District in Colorado Springs has long been recognized as one of the first library systems to offer community information online alongside the patron access catalog. The Library's automated system, named Maggie's Place, was named for Maggie O'Rourke, PPLD's then Head of Technical Services. Maggie II, which appeared more than ten years ago, was based on DEC equipment and got considerable media attention. Migration to the CARL System and Tandem hardware in 1985 allowed Maggie to be expanded beyond 97 terminals. Today Maggie's Place supports 300 dedicated terminals in 11 branches, and provides access to 10 community information files in addition to its online catalog. These popular files include a community events calendar, a community agencies directory, club listings, educational courses, local documents, local authors, senior housing directories, legislative districts, social and economic indicators, and voter information. More than 7,000 people dial in from home to Maggie on a regular basis, using the 4 free lines made available for the public. Many area corporations now show Maggie and PPLD as a menu item on their internal networks.

PPLD's stated mission is to be the center of community information, published materials and community communications. This year, PPLD was selected by the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. to serve as one of only twelve sites (and the only library) offering the "Imagination Celebration," an impressive collection of performing, visual, and literary arts programs designed for the general public.

O'Neill wireless LAN uses radio transmissions

O'Neill Communications Inc., has announced a wireless local area network that uses high-frequency radio transmissions to transfer data and comes bundled with menu-driven software. Called the Local Area Wireless Network (LAWN), the hardware unit--about the size of a modem--attaches to an RS-232 port. The bundled software provides electronic mail, file transfer, and peripheral sharing.

Primarily aimed at organizations with up to 20 users, LAWN units can be placed up to 100 feet apart within a building and up to 500 feet apart between buildings. Each unit can act as a repeater, extending the total network length up to 300 feet indoors through a maximum of two repeaters, according to the company. LAWN has a transmit power of 20 milliwatts and communicates at up to 38,400 bits per second over each of four channels.

There is no server and everyone communicates with everyone else by just plugging each LAWN into an RS-232 port.

The product uses spread-spectrum technology, which was originally developed by the military for secret radio communications in World War II. Spread spectrum, as it is used in the LAWN, divides a signal over several frequencies in the 902- to 928-MHz band, minimizing interference problems, while enhancing data security.

The product is aimed at a market that isn't considering Novell because there is no need for a network administrator since the network is small and simple.

LAWN costs $495 and includes: one LAWN unit; a cable to connect the units to a PC, printer, or modem; a power cord; and communications software.

O'Neill has applied for FCC approval of the product and expects to get it by the end of the third quarter when this product is scheduled to be shipped. While the first version is for IBM and compatible systems, the company expects to ship a Macintosh version by year's end.

[Contact: O'Neill Communications, Inc., 100 Thanet Circle, Suite 202, Princeton, NJ 08540; (609) 924-1095.]

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